Complexity of the modern world and systems thinking

 I grew up in a world of tie-die t-shirts in the 20th century and left school at a time where people didn’t have mobile phones…unless they we’re Yuppy’s (what’s a yuppy?  Google it!). We also didn’t generally have email or tablets or even laptops. In this world, Snapchat wasn’t even a twinkle in Facebooks eye and IT Architects were a local Wellington business rather than a job title.  But the world was also in the middle of a leap in the use of technology…and here we are now.  This increase in complexity and technology which has led to a fundamental shift in how we need to work together better to be successful. 

The purpose of sharing this story is to help others also make sense of what underpins new ways of working that are becoming more present; like Agile project management, Human Centred Design, Safety II and Digitisation so we can better connect to the why, what and how and be in action more effectively.  This blog is an experment in exploring better ways of working that spark our collective intelligence      

Research shows that with increasing complexity and reliance on technology, we need to work in ways that maintain, reinforce and build our human connections.  This blog about exploring the new breed of disciplines and initiatives that spark people’s collective intelligence 

The aim of discovering the spark blog and consultancy is to explore ways that people manage to thriving, not just surviving in this changing 21st century working world.  I've been interested in the changing nature of how we work and live together for some time now.  I remember getting our first Commodore 64 computer at home and our first Apple Macs at primary school and how that changed the way I sat and learnt - or sometimes just played computer games.  Haven't we come along way since then and on so many different technological and social levels! 
 
The way we live together and interact in our communities has changed dramatically since the start of the 19th century.  Here is a very simple review.  In 1800 over 70% of the worlds population lived rural and 30% in urban areas, with even less in metropolitan cities.  Now, 200 years later, up to 80% live in urban areas with a high proportion of those in metropolitan areas.  Only 20% of people now live in the countryside.

This urban shift, has dramatically changed the way we work together and organize ourselves and how societies function leading to a number of developments and revolutions and an increasing speed of change.
1820 - 1840 - Industrial revolution
1877 - 1910 - Communication / Telephone
1880 - 1910 - Transportation / Motor Car
1960 - 1970 - Computer / technology 
1970s - Mobile Phone Technology
1980 - 1990 - Network / World Wide Web 
1990 - 2000 - Mobile phone use
2000 - 2010 - Mobile computing

As you can see there were a number of technological advancements that have happened through the 20th century.  These advancements have changed the nature of our working environments and our work situations and the ways we work together and interact with each other. 

These changes that have led to an increased speed and complexity in how we share information and in doing so, its changed our expectations of one another and changed the way we interact together.  In short it seems to have made the social systems that we work in more complex. 


Systems and Complexity 

What do I mean by this and what is the difference between simple and complex systems?

The way I might describe it is that Systems thinking is a way of making sense of different situations we work within.  What we observe every day and what researchers have confirmed is that different sorts of systems are in motion around us all the time.  Systems theory is something that I've become quite interested in and in 2024 did a Masters level research project using a systems theory approach.  So ill share my simple ‘every-day’ perspective and you can also click on the picture for a fuller introduction to Systems theory or YouTube other explanations. 

 

What many of observe every day and what researchers have confirmed is that different sorts of systems that are going on around us have definable characteristics and can be grouped into one of four categories.

1. Simple systems = easily knowable.
2. Complicated systems = not simple, but still knowable.
3. Complex = not fully knowable
4. Chaotic = neither knowable nor predictable.

In a workshop I attended around 2022, David Snowdon used the Cynefin four-quadrant framework created by Dave Snowden to show the relationship of these categories. Let’s use Cynefin to consider some everyday examples.

 What are some real life examples?

A house is complicated My car is complicated This blog is complicated A computer is complicated  Teamwork in a small business is complicated The biodiesel distillation process is complicated	My household is complex City traffic is complex Our thoughts are complex The internet is complex Teamwork in a big business is complex Customer experience is complex
A tent is simple My skateboard is simple A word is simple An instruction is simple Teamwork for a sole trader is simple	A house fire is chaotic  Cairo city traffic is chaotic    A cybersecurity attack is chaotic earthquake is chaotic Teamwork in the national party right now is chaotic A crisis incident is chaotic

  

Insight: The interesting lesson is that as people have increasingly moved closer together into metropolitan cities and technology has advanced its increased the pace of life and changed our expectations and frequency of our social interactions.  

Insight: A key insight is that each type of system is managed or led best through different leadership styles and using different management approaches and tools. Understanding the differences enables us to lead, manage, influence and operate within situations more effectively.

For those of us working in organisations, our work and industrial environment is made up of a wide range of interacting systems. 

• Functional teams and larger business units
• Customer management system
• Financial management systems
• Health and safety in higher risk operations
• Supplier management system
• Asset management system
• People management approach
• Project management system 

The technological and social changes we're living through have led to our every day working and social systems becoming more complicated or complex which means that our leadership and management approaches also needs to adapt from what was used in the 20th century.  Each of these professional disciplines has its own nuances and uniqueness, but there are also similarities.  

Because the different systems have varying characteristics the ways that people operate best within them, learn about them and also try to influence them also changes.  

Insight: Many of our work systems have shifted from being more complicated in the 20th century, to now being more complex.  As a result, the way that we need to work to thrive within the system or to influence it also needs to change.    

Systems thinking is a way of thinking about overall patterns rather than specific elements or problems.  It helps us find solutions that simultaneously solve different problems and leverage solutions for the wider system or organisation.

So what are some of the key characterisics of the different types?

Since many work situations have evolved from being complicated to complex, lets explore some key differences and characteristics of complex systems?

Complicated Situations and Systems	Complex Situations and System
Large scale – very many parts	Large scale– built up from large numbers of mutually interacting parts
Often closed systems	Open and influenced by other systems
Require significant coordination or specialized technical expertise.	Expertise is a factor but only one contributor to success.
Outcomes or outputs are fully predictable - high certainty of outcome repetition (e.g. product quality)	Not overly predictable (Low chance of repeated outcomes). Context matters.  Individual systems must be understood in their own context.
Parts play specific functional roles and are guided by very simple rules.	Collective behavior feeds back into the behavior of individual parts.   Parts learn and adapt from experience.
Not inherently robust in that parts cannot be removed so must build redundancy into the system (e.g. by containing multiple copies of a part).	Inherently robust due to adaptability so can survive the removal of parts by adapting.
Total is sum of the parts so can be dismantled to parts to be understood	The whole is greater than parts so cannot be understood by examining parts. The structure and behaviour of a complex system is not solely dependent on the structure and behaviour of its component parts. Instead the interactions among the parts plays a big role​
Error can be engineered out	Failure and error is normal and expected

My key insight is that during our day to day activities we all work or lead in mixture of different situations, ranging from simple to complicated, complex and sometimes chaotic. We especially need to be particularly aware of the leadership approaches and management tools that are best suited to either a complicated technical situation or complex situation.

The Table below looks further at different leadership roles that can be employed depending on whether one is dealing with a complicated or complex system.

Leadership for Complicated systems	Leadership for Complex adaptive systems
Define Roles – setting job and task descriptions Make Decisions – find the ‘best’ choice Tight Structuring – use chain of command and prioritise or limit simple action Apply rules and beliefs – refer to known rules and principles Apply Knowledge – decide and tell others what to do Stay the Course – align and maintain focus	Build Relationships – work with patterns of interaction Make Sense – collective interpretation Foster Loose Coupling – support communities of practice and add more degrees of freedom Learning – act/learn/plan at the same time Notice Emergent Directions – building on what works Understand values and customers -

 

Table: Different leadership roles for different systems

 
As the tendancy towards complexity continues and as the pace of change also evolves, as managers, leaders and other 'actors' we need to keep evolving and adapting the balance of ways that we work with others to achieve outcomes. 
 

Most work situations will have simple, complicated and complex systems in play togther.  The art of leadership and management lies in having a toolkit of approaches (table 3), and being aware of when to use which approach.     

Table 3

Operational level	Complicated Systems	Complex Systems
Leadership	Authoritative, highly rganized leadership	Servant / Level 5 leadership
	Engineering design	Human Centred Design
Risk Assessment	Analytical	Social
System modeling	Static – point in time	Dynamic - visual
Contractual / Procurement	Supplier contracting	Alliance Partnership
Project Methodology	Waterfall	Agile
Event Learning	Event Investigations	Learning Teams
Personal Learning	Functional coaching	Transformational Coaching

This blog is about growing understanding and sharing tools to help NZ people work well together in 21st century.  I will touch on innovation, wellbeing, managing risks, health and safety, project management